Irish Football 1st Week (02/03/12) Preview

[Vipers]

Shamrock 6-0 Dundalk
Shelbourne 2-1 Bray
Sligo 1-1 Derry

+0.6 on a slightly frustrating day. A convincing victory for Shamrock but the Shelbourne/Bray game sounded fairly even and Bray missed a penalty on the hour with the score at 1-1 before Shelbourne's winner, so it was staked returned. Sligo were a little disappointing but had their lead cancelled out by a penalty after a rash challenge.

Will preview next week at 7pm on Thurs and also have a look at Shamrock in-play.

[Vipers]

Suggested Bets:
Derry V Dundalk. Derry Win to Nil (5 points @ 2.1 Bet365, Coral, 2.05 WilliamHill)
Bohemians V Monaghan. Bohemians Win to Nil (3 points @ 2.25 PaddyPower, Coral, 2.1 Bet365, WilliamHill)
Both sets of odds can be easily beaten by dutching individual correct scores to nil.
‘Bonus’ Bet:
To finish Bottom: Monaghan 3.6points @ 1.83 PaddyPower (this is a saver bet to return stake having taken Dundalk for 3 points @ 10 a few weeks ago (now 4.5)).

A good week for Derry with a point at Sligo and a 3-0 cup win at Shamrock. On the other hand, Dundalk lost 6-0 at Shamrock last Friday. This is Dundalk’s fifth away game and they’ve failed to score in their previous four and only in one of their three home games.
There’s a huge gap between Derry’s odds to win (best price 1.45) and their odds to win to nil when considering Dundalk’s inability to score and Derry’s three clean sheets out of three at home and all three of their league wins this season have been to nil. Additionally 5 out of 7 cup wins have been without conceding and that’s against sides without Dundalk’s record. Last season 8 out of 9 home wins were to nil.
There were a few minor injuries in the Derry camp last weekend which is largely still the case, but have more than coped this week and can enter Friday with confidence which cannot be said for Dundalk after a woeful few weeks and Derry should be too good for them. The odds between Derry winning by any score and to nil should be much closer and this deserves the first 5 point bet of the season.

Another side struggling to score is Monaghan who also lost 6-0 last weekend at the previously underperforming Cork. They’ve only scored against UCD in their last four (who are also the only side Dundalk have scored against) and the manner of their defeats must be slightly worrying- particularly only one lame effort on goal against Sligo and little better at Cork.
Bohs have won their last 2 with 2 clean sheets in their last 2 home games. Whilst these stats are far from as convincing as the Derry/Dundalk preview, again it’s been the manner of their performances which has led me here. Beginning with a tough fixture list, they started with a losing run which was understandable considering the opposition and their vast number of new players. However, they’ve appeared well organised and solid defensively- not many sides will only concede 4 in 4 games against Shamrock, Sligo, St. Pat’s and Derry. Now they’ve played 2 lesser sides and gained 2 victories they should start to move into comfortable mid-table.
This is one side with a bit of momentum against one moving in the opposite direction and a well organised and solid defence against a struggling attack. Bohs are at full strength apart from suspended striker Scully.

A few weeks ago I suggested backing Dundalk at odds of 10 to finish bottom expecting the bad run which has followed and which has seen their odds drop to 4.5. However, I had hoped Monaghan might pick up slightly and be in a little better shape than they are with a view to backing them as a saver quite cheaply in a couple of week’s time. That hasn’t happened, so I don’t think that can be left as another couple of defeats could make their odds too low whilst a few points will only raise them slightly. The time is right to back them now as a saver for the Dundalk bet. I can’t see any other candidates (I rate Bray higher than the bookies seem to) and will roughly break even if Monaghan finish bottom (-0.01) and be + 23.4 if it’s Dundalk.
As mentioned previously, as there is only one bookmaker with this market, I’ll consider it a ‘bonus’ bet and make a note of how it goes, but not include it in the overall figures.

A brief bit of analysis of Shamrock to follow later this evening and next previews will be next Thursday.

[Vipers]

Following this week’s picks, thought I’d mention something else I’ve spotted. Over the last few weeks I’ve mentioned how Shamrock have turned the screw once in front at home against the weaker sides, but before leading sometimes seem to have trouble breaking down sides putting men behind the ball. Once the goal is scored another normally follows. Whether it’s confidence, lack of concentration on the oppositions part, more space being created or a combination of factors, it’s a trend that seems to be worth noting.
Looking at this season and last for Rovers’ home games against the bottom half (last year and probable bottom half this season), they’ve played 13 games, winning 11 by 2 goals or more. The other two games they haven’t had the lead at any stage. Here’s a list of results and goal-times for these games, firstly when Shamrock have scored first (opposition goals in brackets):
3-1 69, 72, (82), 84
3-0 49, 56, 61
4-0 18, 48, 66, 90
6-0 62, 65, 67, 69, 84, 90
4-0 23, 41, 70, 81
4-0 31,37, 65, 83
2-0 79, 90
6-0 31, 33, 47, 81, 87, 90
In all 8 games having scored the first goal (and therefore taken the lead), Shamrock have scored the second. Average time of 1st goal is 45 minutes. Average length of time between 1st and 2nd goals is 10 minutes. When the 1st goal hasn’t come in the first half-hour this comes down to 5 minutes.
Here are the 3 games when Shamrock have conceded 1st.
3-1 (45), 45, 50, 55
5-2 (24), 44, 50, 58, 68, 90, (90)
3-1 (3), 55, 64, 90
Again when going ahead they’ve scored the next goal on each occasion, here after another 5, 8 and 26 minutes. (Perhaps also worth noting the gap between equalisers and lead-takers were 5, 6 and 9 minutes. (The other 2 games were lost 0-1 and drawn 2-2 from 0-2 down with goals after 79 minutes and an equaliser after 90.))
Knowing this could be of use if following games in-play and the next game this may be of use is Friday 4th May at home to UCD.

[Vipers]

A few surprising results last week and both suggested bets lost, losing 8 points. A couple of disappointing weeks recently but over the course of the season I have every faith that all will come good.

All 6 games this week are on Friday night, with the first kick-off at 19:05. I wont be able to make my normal suggestions by 7pm on Thurs this week so will post on Friday morning by 8am.

[Vipers]

Suggested Bets:
Sligo V St. Patricks. FIRST-HALF goals -0.75 (3 points @ 2.2 188Bet, 2.18 12Bet, Dafabet, 2.17 SBOBet).
UCD V Drogheda. Drogheda Win (3 points @ 2.25 StanJames, BlueSquare, 888Sport, WilliamHill).
Monaghan V Bray. Bray Asian Handicap 0 (3 points @ 2.09 Pinnacle, 2.08 12Bet, Dafabet, SBOBet).
Dundalk V Bohemians. Under 2 goals- stake returned if 2 goals (3 points @ 2.04 188Bet, 2.03 12Bet, Dafabet, 2.01 Pinnacle).

‘Bonus’ Bet (on markets with small liquidity):
Shamrock V Derry. Gary Twigg 1st Goalscorer (1 point e/w (2pts staked) @ 4.5 PaddyPower, 4 Ladbrokes, WilliamHill). Each-way terms 1/3 odds for first 5 goals.

Sligo and St. Patrick’s are both unbeaten after 8 games. Sligo’s 6 wins have all been against what I expect to be the bottom half and 5 of those victories have been by 1 goal. St Pat’s have drawn 3 of their 4 away games, only scoring 3 and conceding once. Sligo have only conceded 2 in 4 home games and 4 in 8 overall.
Centre-back McGuiness is the only injury concern for Sligo, but he’s been in and out for a while now. I can’t see value in the result with a tight contest likely and I’d be torn between expecting a draw or Sligo to just edge it. Equally it’s hard to see many goals with two well organised defences and wet conditions likely to hinder both sides’ passing games. A cagey start is likely and it wouldn’t be a surprise if any goals, if they do happen, occur later in the game.
Last season St. Pat’s away games against the top half reached half-time goalless in 7 out of 8 games with just the one goal in the other and 2 of their last 3 away games have finished nil-nil (overall 7/8 games have finished with 2 goals or fewer this season). Half of Sligo’s games this season have reached half-time without a goal and last season only one of their 8 home games against the top-half had more than one first-half goal. Three of the last four meetings between these sides have been 0-0 at half-time and to be above evens for under 0.75 first-half goals, returning half-stake if there’s one 1st half goal, looks to be the best value here.

It’s now 5 wins and 2 draws in the last 7 games for Drogheda including 3/3 away wins. Meanwhile UCD had lost 5 and drawn and won 1 in their last 7. Drogs also seem to be gelling and enjoyed an impressive 3-1 victory against Shelbourne last week and only have Crowley unavailable. UCD have been performing slightly better than the results suggest but the clincher for this bet is that they have at least 5 unavailable.

Dundalk’s home games have had 2 goals or fewer, apart from against UCD, and Bohemians away games have had 2 goals or fewer, apart from against UCD. Removing the UCD ties and both Dundalk and Bohemains have only scored 2 in their other 7 matches this season. Dundalk were gifted their goals at Derry last week but have been showing signs of improvement recently. The floodgates opened once they had conceded against Shamrock and Sligo but they’re not facing anything like those attacking threats against Bohs and in their other 6 games they’ve only conceded 4 goals.
Bohemians lost against Monaghan last week despite playing against 10 men after the 3rd minute which was certainly surprising. However, they have a decent defence and a stalemate here wouldn’t be a huge shock.

It’s probably because of their victory at Bohemians that Monaghan have been made slight favourites at home to Bray. However, that was their first victory and followed a 0-6 thumping at Cork the previous week. Keeper Bennion is suspended and there are other injuries, though not new ones.
Bray also only have one victory but have been performing well in recent weeks- leading Shamrock by 2 last week before having to settle for a draw, missing a penalty to give them a 2nd half lead at Shelbourne before conceding late the previous week, only going down by one against Sligo the week before that and have scored in their last 6. In their 8 games they have played the top 6 and taken 4 points from their other 2. They have a good record against the bottom half- winning 12 out of 16 last season. They’re yet to keep a clean sheet, but that was also true of Cork before they played Monaghan and with Mons yet to score at home, Bray should be capable of getting something from this game.

Gary Twigg has scored 10 in 8 games for Shamrock in the league this season, scoring in 6 different games and scoring 1st twice (in Shamrock’s last 3 home games) and Shamrock’s 1st goal on 4 occasions. He also scored both of the goals in the game against Derry in the Setanta Cup on Monday night. This is no freak occurrence- in 98 league appearances for Shamrock he’s scored 68 goals and is in fine form. With Shamrock at a best price of 1.53 to score first there’s a small bit of value for backing this classy striker especially as he leads the line as Shams either play 2 wide players and a midfield three or with a deeper 2nd striker in O’Neill who has only scored twice in 31 appearances.

[mandkay]

Great call on Twigg and a decent price, imagine trying to get those odds on Van Persie or Rooney?
Excellent write up as always Vipers, thanks for posting..

[Vipers]

Suggested Bets:
Shamrock V UCD. Shamrock -1.5 H’cap (4 points @ 1.91 SBOBet, 888Sport, BlueSq, PaddyPower).
Derry V St. Patrick’s. St Pat’s Asian H’cap 0 or Draw No Bet (3 points @ 2.00 PaddyPower, 1.95 Pinnacle, Bet365).
Bray V Bohemians. Bray +0.25 Asian H’cap (3 points @ 1.93 188Bet, 1.92 12Bet, DafaBet, 1.9 SBOBet).
Drogheda V Sligo. Drogheda +0.5 Asian H’cap (3 points @ 2.00 188Bet, Pinnacle, 1.98 12Bet, SBOBet, Dafabet).
Ante-Post:
St. Patrick’s to win league (3 points @ 9 Bwin, 8.75 Unibet, PAF, 8.5 12Bet, Dafabet, Getwin, 8 Bet365, 188Bet, PaddyPower).
Bonus Bet
Gary Twigg first goalscorer Shamrock V UCD 1 point each-way (2 points staked) @ 4 PaddyPower, 3.75 Ladbrokes (others likely to add market).

Down 1.23 points on the main bets last week but up 4.66 on the bonus bet. A negative month which I’ll review with the results for this weekend.

No apologies for repeating the bonus bet- as Mandkay spotted, Twigg’s form continues and though the odds are 4 rather than 4.5 this week, it should be an easier game for Shamrock. I made a post solely about Shamrock at home to bottom-half teams a fortnight ago (#23) and would only repeat myself here. Suffice to say their record of winning by 2 or more in these games is extremely strong. UCD have a very poor away record losing 12/14 away to teams above them last season and 3 from 4 so far this year.

St. Patrick’s are unbeaten this season and were unlucky not to take 3 points at Sligo last week which they probably deserved. Sligo had a half-time lead, despite having no efforts on goal, when ‘keeper Clarke dropped a corner onto a defender only to see it roll back past him. After equalising, Fagan put a 90th minute penalty over the bar. Pat’s were the more likely winners which is in contrast to Derry’s 1-1 at Sligo recently when they were perhaps slightly fortunate. It’s now no win in 5 for Derry, results which include a home loss against Dundalk and only a goalless draw hosting UCD. They haven’t quite progressed as they may have hoped, despite reaching the Setanta final, though it’s worth noting their win at Shamrock followed a 3rd minute sending-off for the hosts.
I quoted Pat’s manager Buckley describing the squad as a work in progress before their 5-1 win against Shamrock and it certainly seems that that is progressing. They’re looking well organised defensively (keeper and back four have been unchanged) and in midfield Forrester, Chambers, Bolger and Russell have all impressed. Fagan is returning to full sharpness, adding goals. After being unbeaten in 9 and only 4 points from the top having had the better of both games against Shamrock and Sligo it’s a surprise to find them available at 9 to win the league. If this run continues, and they have a reasonable run of games up to the June break, these odds will come down sooner rather than later. Sligo play Shamrock next week so points have to be dropped by at least one side then.
Although Shamrock and Sligo had fewer playing changes over the winter, they both still had a managerial change and based on performances it seems the new bosses are perhaps further from knowing their best elevens and formations than they seemed a few weeks ago. Certainly neither are on great form and by the time of the break, I’d expect St. Pat’s to be up there with them, if not ahead.

Last week I commented how Bray tend to be underrated against sides other than top sides and they continued their decent run of performances by beating Monaghan. Bohemians did bounce back against a poor Dundalk, but I don’t give them the advantage the odds suggest here. Again Bray can expect something from this game so to be able to back them with a +0.25 head start near evens is a bonus worth taking.

As mentioned earlier, Sligo are not quite clicking. They are unbeaten but were lucky to continue that record and 5 of their 6 wins have been by 1 goal against the bottom half, when more could have been expected. Against the top half they’ve drawn all 3 and they are rarely convincing for long periods. Additionally, key midielder Ndo has hobbled off twice in recent weeks and is a doubt this week along with Keane and McGuiness.
Drogheda are now on an unbeaten run of 8 themselves, after losing their opener against Shamrock when quite depleted. They may have been disappointed to have only drawn at UCD last week despite forcing a lot of pressure, but their form has been stable and there’s a strong likelihood they can take something from this game.

[Vipers]

More to follow by 10 pm tonight (Thurs) and a late update at 6pm on Friday ahead of 7.45 kick-offs.

Suggested Bet:
Dundalk V Bray. Bray Asian H’cap 0 Draw no bet (same bet) (4 points @ 1.91 WilliamHill, 1.9 Gamebookers, PartyBets, 1.87 188Bet, 1.86 SBOBet, 12Bet and others).
(100 point bank, bets from 1-10 points with a predicted season average of 4 points per bet.)
More bets will follow later, but waiting on team news.

Last week was looking great at one point as St. Pat’s won easily in the early kick-off, Bray beat Bohs to both comfortably beat their handicap and Shamrock seemingly cruising at 2-0 at home to UCD. Twigg then had a goal ruled out when his chip was called offside which would have surely seen that one home, depriving 9.64 points in the process. However, UCD scored almost straight away and then equalised. Drogheda, after a poor start were looking to get the equaliser to win their bet but conceded again as they pushed. So, all in all, another cigar-less week with a loss of 1.24 points on the main bets and loss 2 points on the bonus bets.

This followed a bad April with a loss of 18.13 from 41 points staked on the main bets, though a profit of 4.66 on the bonus bets from the 2 points staked. This brought the overall record at the end of April to a loss of 9.2 from 89 staked on main bets and a profit of 3.66 from 3 staked on bonus bets (bets on fringe markets or with few options of bookmaker).
I’m not sure if this is encouraging , frustrating or other, but of the main bets, 13 games would have had the return improved by one goal difference, with an increased return of 59.48 points (and that doesn’t include the Shamrock goal mentioned above). Yes some of the positive returns have just won by the odd goal and you expect to fall on the wrong side of the line sometimes in handicap betting, but to have this happen in almost half the games so far is the difference between profit and loss when just a couple going in favour would now be showing a much rosier start to the season.

On the positive side, in the long run, the start may turn out to be profitable after all as the long-term shots of Dundalk to finish bottom (3pts @ 10), with a saver on Monaghan, continues to be go well as they’re now the bottom two for the first time and St. Pat’s to win the league (3pts @ 9) is also looking good as they moved up to 2nd and are still unbeaten after 10 games.

More will follow later at 10pm, but there’s one ready now. Last week I chose not to back Cork because of their long list of unavailables but they still managed to come from behind and beat Dundalk. Dundalk, as has been the case before, also had many ruled out and started the game with 8 teenagers. Only captain Shields returns this week against his old club Bray.
Bray, who have practically a full squad to choose from, have been impressive in recent weeks. The signs were there as they were unlucky in defeat against Sligo and particularly at Shelbourne before gaining a creditable draw against Shamrock followed 2 wins in their last 2 games. This follows their record of 12/16 wins last season against the bottom half and they’ve won all of their 3 games against sides near the bottom of the table. Whilst a young side too, they’re relatively experienced in comparison and the nous and threat of Waters and Byrne coupled with momentum and their record against struggling sides and this is worth a 4 point bet.

[Vipers]

Suggested Bets (in addition to the bet on Bray, above):
Bohemians V Drogheda. +2 Goals (3 points (stake returned if 2 goals) @ 1.85 188Bet, 12bet, Dafabet, 1.83 Pinnacle, SBOBet).

Drogheda Asian H’cap 0 draw no bet (same bet) (2 points@ 2.15 WilliamHill, 2.11 Pinnacle, BetVictor, 2.1 Ladbrokes, Coral, PaddyPower)

UCD V Shelbourne. UCD Asian H’cap +0.25 (3 points@ 2.12 Pinnacle, 2.11 SBOBet, 2.09 188Bet, 12Bet, Dafabet)

Having started the season without scoring in their first 5 games, Bohemians have scored in each of their 5 since. Whilst this surely involves the fixture list with a tough start followed by an easier run, a change in formation has also occurred with 3 often pushed on rather than the lonely frontman they seemed to have earlier in the season.
In the last few weeks they’ve blown hot and cold, including losing at home to Monaghan despite playing against 10 men for almost the entire match, but other than that have won 3 of their other last 4. They have a couple of absences this week, but little to affect their forward line but will miss Heary’s experience at the back.
Last week’s defeat by Sligo was Drogheda’s first since the season opener against Shamrock. Between the two defeats have been 5 impressive victories, perhaps a fortunate draw against in-form St. Pat’s, a draw at UCD when they may and probably should have won, though both sides had chances, and a draw against Dundalk when finishing with 9 men.
Overall, Drogheda, with 10 points from a possible 12 and 9 goals in 4 games on the road and with Gavin and Ryan Brennan likely to be back this week should be slight favourites. The odds are the reverse, but there’s not enough between these sides to merit a large stake though the draw no bet at above evens does appeal. Additionally, with +2 goals at 1.85 (stake back if 2 goals), for 2 sides regularly scoring and conceding of late, deserving a reasonable investment as well, I don’t want to overcommit on the match result so will split these bets for 3 and 2 points.

UCD’s return of 9 points from 10 games probably doesn’t reflect their performances. Last season a not dissimilar squad were regularly being beaten by a few away from home whereas this season they’ve been more competitive and though fortunate not to be overcome at Shamrock last week, they fought back much as they nearly did at Sligo earlier in the season. They finished last year well at home and most of their games this year really could have gone either way. As it is, all 5 home games have been separated by a solitary goal for or against.
Shelbourne started very brightly this season, but then lost by 4 at Shamrock after an early sending off and made a few changes afterwards. They haven’t quite clicked for long periods since then and can be considered fortunate to have beaten Bray (who missed a 2nd half penalty at 1-1) and Monaghan (needed 2 second-half goals to come from behind) at home and away have lost at Drogheda and only drawn at Dundalk. Their only away victory was when playing Bohemians at the right time.
Both sides have few injury doubts, but given performances and both sides respective home and away form, this should be marked more evenly. To be above evens with a head start for UCD warrants a 3 point bet.

The fourth game on Friday sees Cork, again with a long list of absences but decent recent form, travel to St. Pat’s. St. Pat’s have been solid at the back but particularly impressive in midfield. However, with Chambers out for a few weeks Bolger was moved into the defensive midfield position last week and he is suspended this week, prompting another reshuffle of their most effective area and with Rossiter out too, with St. Pat’s at a best price 1.73 I don’t think there’s value here.

Sligo host Shamrock on Saturday in what should be an intriguing game but I don’t see an angle to get involved and I wouldn’t disagree with the odds as neither are quite getting it right at the moment despite the table.

Monaghan play Derry on Tuesday so I’ll look at that one on Monday night. A few have been slow to price goalscorer markets and there’s been late team news in the last few weeks so from now on I’ll have a quick line at about 6pm on Fridays for any extra bets if they arise (which will go under the ‘bonus’ category).

[Vipers]

As quick lines go, this is pretty darn quick- not much new to report. Mons/Derry preview Monday night.